Methodology
Context
The market for online manipulation in service of malign actors is thriving, with fake accounts, comments, likes, and shares readily available for purchase.
Nowadays, most online platforms require SMS verification to register an account, which was intended to confirm humanness. However, fake account creators have found a way to circumvent this verification: they operate 'farms' with thousands of SIM cards and virtual numbers, enabling other malign actors to register fake accounts automatically and in bulk.
To illustrate the level of automation in this industry, €10 can buy: 90,000 fake views, 10,000 likes, or 200 comments:
Before any manipulation can occur, fake accounts must be registered and verified. The typical price for one SMS verification is around 50 cents, but this cost varies widely depending on the service's popularity, country, and current demand.
Summary
The Cambridge Online Trust & Safety Index (COTSI) tracks the dynamics of the fake SMS-verifications market across different platforms and countries. The Index aims to answer the following questions:
- How easy (and cheap) is it to engage in online manipulation?
- Is the situation with fake accounts improving or worsening over time?
- Which online platforms are most (or least) effective at combating manipulation?
- Which countries or regions are in higher demand for online manipulation?
By providing a comprehensive database and interactive visualisations, we enable researchers, governments and the general public to make data-driven decisions to combat misinformation and foster trust in digital environments.
Data
We identified seventeen vendors providing fake SMS verification services and sorted them by the web traffic they receive, focusing on the top 10. From this top ten list, we selected five vendors to be included in the price index. The justifications for inclusion in the price index are as follows: data on both price and stock should be freely available via API, preferably without login or paywall; and the sms verifications should be of comparable quality to the rest of the vendors.
| Vendor | 3-month traffic (Mar-May 2023) | Top Country by web traffic | Include in price index? | Justification for inclusion/exclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vendor1 | 16,310,000 |  CN |  | The biggest one, well structured. |
| Vendor2 | 6,500,000 |  RU |  | Although relatively big, it is more retail-facing, more expensive, login walled. |
| Vendor3 | 5,137,000 | CN | | Big one. Suspected virtual numbers. |
| Vendor4 | 2,751,000 |  US | reserve | Big one, but some of the info (e.g. stock) is paywalled, Also, suspected reselling. |
| Vendor5 | 1,871,000 |  ID | | All info seems to be available. |
| Vendor6 | 1,778,000 | RU | reserve | Info on price and stock is available, but suspected reselling and virtual numbers. |
| Vendor7 | 1,212,000 |  NG | | Well structured. Though, suspected reseller. |
| Vendor8 | 530,347 |  BY | | What we need, all the available info. |
| Vendor9 | 320,487 |  VN | reserve | Not that big and focused on South-East Asia specifically. In Reserve for now. |
| Vendor10 | 205,153 | RU | | Login walled. |
| Vendor11 | 169,734 | RU | | |
| Vendor12 | 112,384 | RU | | |
| Vendor13 | 107,504 | US | | |
| Vendor14 | 79,122 |  NP | | |
| Vendor15 | 69,346 | US | | |
| Vendor16 | 45,523 |  IN | | |
| Vendor17 | 31,716 | US | |
The names of the vendors are hidden for ethical reasons, to avoid promoting their business, and for operational security reasons. Should you have a legitimate research interest, please contact us via the Contact form to discuss details.
Our automatic script collects data via API interfaces provided by most vendors. The collected data consists of the price of verification and the number of verifications available, which are usually unique for a combination of a country and an online platform.
Online platforms. The list of online platforms available for fake verifications includes popular social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, WhatsApp, and Telegram; cloud infrastructure providers such as Amazon Web Services, Google Firebase, and OpenAI; marketplaces; online banks; crypto exchanges; and more.
Countries. Fake SMS verifications are available in almost every country. Hereinafter, we use country, economy, and region interchangeably, as defined by the World Bank classification: “The term country, used interchangeably with economy, does not imply political independence but refers to any territory for which authorities report separate social or economic statistics”.
In our context, these terms refer to regions operating independent mobile carrier networks. The full list of online platforms and countries observed by the index is available via the link: COTSI Services and Countries
Representation
The index data representation is organised as follows:
Selector menu:- Allows choosing either an online platform or a country view mode.
- Displays the total number of verifications available for the selected platform or country across all monitored vendors of fake SMS verifications.
- Contains information on the average price for one SMS verification.
- The average price is calculated as a weighted average, weighted based on the number of verifications available.
- By Platform. Up-to-date statistics for a selected online platform:
- Map. Displays the gradation of prices or available stock, depending on the selected sorting criteria. The default view shows price gradation.
- Scatterplot. Depicts the distribution of countries by verification prices and stock with both axes set to logarithmic scales to allow better comparison despite outliers.
- Timeline. Compares historical data of verification prices and stock across up to 5 selected countries.
- By Country. Up-to-date statistics for a selected country:
- Map. Provides a zoomed-in view of the selected country, with click-through capability to see statistics of neighbouring countries.
- Scatterplot. Depicts the distribution of platforms by verification prices and stock with both axes set to logarithmic scales to allow better comparison despite outliers.
- Timeline. Compares historical data of verification prices and stock across up to 5 selected platforms.
Mission
The COTSI mission is to provide comprehensive real-time monitoring of online trust and safety metrics, focusing on the market for fake accounts and engagement, with the broader aim of countering misinformation and online manipulations.
The initial focus is monitoring prices of fake SMS verifications, with plans to expand to other areas impacting online trust and safety.
Team
The Cambridge Online Trust & Safety Index (COTSI) is maintained by the Cambridge Social Decision-Making Lab with the development support of Trementum. The index's authors are Dr Anton Dek, Prof Sander van der Linden, Dr Jon Roozenbeek, Yara Kyrychenko, and Kyrylo Manakhov.
UK Government Cabinet Office, Grant #SCH-00001-3391
Cambridge Centre for Finance, Technology & Regulation
Changelog
31 July 2024: version 1.0.0. published. This version features daily updated data on fake SMS-verification prices and stock, covering 546 platforms and 198 regions.
